Week 17 Summary

Day 121, Feast Day #67

This morning I woke up a pound lighter. So that makes for 26 lbs (11.8 kg) lost in just over 17 weeks of alternate day fasting. This puts me at about 1.5 lbs (0.7 kg) lost per week so far. I am a little worried I will fast myself down too small for my wedding dress. So I tried the dress on again today. It fits right now without any shapewear and I can zip it up myself (unlike when I originally bought it and had to squeeze in with the help of a layer of strong Lycra compressing my belly and a second pair of hands). So I just have to work a bit more at eating all of my calories on fast days and possibly cutting back to a 6:1 or 5:2 schedule for maintenance if the dress gets too loose.

Yesterday I fasted 22 hours on just tea and water and then broke my fast with an African-style fish stew and a late night snack of nuts, plain Greek yogurt with a little honey, and some raspberries. I wasn't very hungry at all yesterday, maybe because I ate so much the day before. Any brief thoughts I had about food passed quickly and I got a ton of chores and wedding tasks done. I don't often experience the feelings of being light-headed or tired like I did when I first started intermittent fasting, which is nice.

Zach is off doing fieldwork, so I have been testing out new recipes while he is away and adding to my dinner tool belt. So far my favorite was this Paleo recipe for Asian-inspired pork meatballs. They were so yummy!

I added in some minced garlic and red chili flakes to them and substituted soy aminos, since I don't have any coconut ones. They are also only ~252 calories for five meatballs the way I made them, therefore perfect for an easy fast day meal.

This is how last week's numbers factored in:

Calories
Week 1: 1,437 kcal or 76% of baseline calories (-3,213 kcal/week)
Week 2: 1,938 kcal or 102% of baseline calories (+294 kcal/week)
Week 3: 1,680 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1,512 kcal/week)
Week 4: 2,196 kcal or 116% of baseline calories (+2,100 kcal/week)
Week 5: 1,829 kcal or 96% of baseline calories (-469 kcal/week)
Week 6: 1,531 kcal or 81% of baseline calories (-2,555 kcal/week)
Week 7: 1,954 kcal or 103% of baseline calories (+406 kcal/week)
Week 8: 1,196 kcal or 63% of baseline calories (-4,900 kcal/week)
Week 9: 1,638 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,806 kcal/week)
Week 10: 1,637 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,813 kcal/week)
Week 11: 1,681 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1,505 kcal/week)
Week 12*: 2,108 kcal or 111% of baseline calories (+1,484 kcal/week)
Week 13*: 2,649 kcal or 140% of baseline calories (+5,271 kcal/week)
Week 14: 1,882 kcal or 99% of baseline calories (-98 kcal/week)
Week 15: 1,280 kcal or 68% of baseline calories (-4,312 kcal/week)
Week 16: 1,861 kcal or 98% of baseline calories (-245 kcal/week)
Week 17: 1,684 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1484 kcal/week)

While ADFing: 1,775 kcal or 94% of baseline calories
Baseline Days: 1,896 kcal

All Feast Days: 2,831 kcal or 149% of baseline calories
All Fast Days: 438 kcal or 23% of baseline calories

For reference
Week 1: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 2: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 3: 4 feast days, 1 medium day, 1 fast day
Week 4: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 5: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 6: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 7: 4 feast days, 3 fast days,
Week 8: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 9: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 10: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 11: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 12: 5 feast days, 2 fast days*
Week 13: 5 feast days, 2 fast days*
Week 14: 4 feast days, 1 medium day, 2 fast days
Week 15: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 16: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 17: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
*Includes days during my bachelorette party weekend.

I feasted hardcore this past week with a fondue party and a couple happy hours with friends. It turns out what I was feasting on was notably different than past weeks. I ended up averaging just 119 grams of carbs a day, versus my average of 186 grams over the last 17 weeks, a 36% decrease. I've been trying to reduce the amount of grains I have been eating, since quitting wheat cold turkey didn't last longer than 72 hours for me. I have been feeling less tired recently despite no changes in how long I am sleeping. I wonder if my recent burst in productivity is from reducing the refined and total carbs in my diet or if I am just riding waves of wedding jitters and stress that is leading to more work getting done. Maybe it is just because I am trying to stay busy and not think about Zach being away.

Antibiotics & Weight Gain

Day #98, Feast Day #55

I am on my last day taking antibiotics and am more than ready to be done with them. Despite trying to get back on track with alternate day fasting this week, my scale has been messing with my mind. I have been gaining and losing pounds like my scale is on a rollercoaster ride. I got on the scale yesterday before work, and I gained 2 lbs in the night. Sure, I had a small slice of cake and a cocktail when I broke my fast that evening, but 2 lbs?!? I also have averaged below my baseline calories this past week. I've also had a lot of heartburn the last couple of days. So, what the hell is going on with my body? Even on bad weeks I haven't seen this much volatility in my weight before. My first thought is that it has something to do with being on antibiotics.

I used to work for a pubic interest group, so I am generally suspicious of taking any medication for the most part because I am wary of the influence of profit-driven, pharmaceutical companies, drug manufacturers, and their lobbyists. These are the same companies that pay off rival companies to delay the production of generic medications, do "phantom" recalls of tainted products from retail stores, and literally have given people AIDS. Now that I have noted my paranoia/bias, can antibiotics cause weight gain?

This fat antibiotic fed laboratory mouse says, "Yes!"

My stepfather has worked in the animal slaughter industry basically his entire life. So I have known that some agribusinesses mix antibiotics into the regular animal feed, so they fatten up their animals quickly. Luckily his company does not use this practice. The agribusiness practice of feeding animals low levels of antibiotics has been repeated in controlled laboratory studies. Mice fed a low dose of antibiotics got fat in these studies. It turns out the mouse bodies were converting more carbohydrates into fatty acids and storing more fat while on antibiotics than the control mice.

I obviously was given a therapeutic level of antibiotics and not a low dosage. I am also not a mouse. So do antibiotic treatments cause human weight gain? A summary of research on this topic suggests they do. The types of gut bacteria and their populations are correlated to weight in people and may be an important factor in weight gain, loss, and maintenance. Children treated with antibiotics early in life also tended to be more overweight than children who had not been treated with antibiotics when they got older.

So that cake and cocktail may have magically turned themselves into fat overnight due to my compromised bacterial balance. Ugh. Now that I have a good theory as to why my weight has been all over the place this week, I am glad that I get to start repopulating my gut with good bacteria tomorrow.

Week 13 Summary

Day 93, Feast Day #52

I have been very bad at actually alternate day fasting these past couple of weeks and have ended up just 5:2ing. Birthday parties and the bachelorette party last week have been followed by my own Independence Day party and spending an evening at the Seattle International Beer Festival. All of my feasting and ludicrous amounts of refined grains and alcohol has set me back 2 lbs total. My net weight loss is down to 19 lbs over 13 weeks. This is still 19 lbs I am proud to not be carrying anymore, but gaining back weight is still irritating, especially since it is directly related to my recent pleasure eating and drinking.

Another set back this week is being on a 10-day course of antibiotics. I am one of those people that can get really nauseous when taking oral antibiotics, and the doctor said I should take these ones with a meal, twice a day, to avoid stomach irritation. (The doctor also confirmed I likely have a celery allergy based on the mouth numbing I noticed previously). For days now, I have been eating regardless of actual hunger in the morning to make sure my medicine stays down. Ugh. Just yesterday, I had intended to do a fast day, but ended up doing a medium calorie day. The awkward 953 calories is far too high to be a fast day, but too low to be a normal day of eating.

Here are the numbers for the past week including two days of the bachelorette party and my July 4th party:

Calories

Week 1: 1,437 kcal or 76% of baseline calories (-3,213 kcal/week)

Week 2: 1,938 kcal or 102% of baseline calories (+294 kcal/week)

Week 3: 1,680 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1,512 kcal/week)

Week 4: 2,196 kcal or 116% of baseline calories (+2,100 kcal/week)

Week 5: 1,829 kcal or 96% of baseline calories (-469 kcal/week)

Week 6: 1,531 kcal or 81% of baseline calories (-2,555 kcal/week)

Week 7: 1,954 kcal or 103% of baseline calories (+406 kcal/week)

Week 8: 1,196 kcal or 63% of baseline calories (-4,900 kcal/week)

Week 9: 1,638 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,806 kcal/week)

Week 10: 1,637 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,813 kcal/week)

Week 11: 1,681 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1,505 kcal/week)

Week 12*: 2,108 kcal or 111% of baseline calories (+1,484 kcal/week)

Week 13*: 2,649 kcal or 140% of baseline calories (+5,271 kcal/week)

While ADFing: 1,806 kcal or 95% of baseline calories

Baseline Days: 1,896 kcal

All Feast Days: 2,857 kcal or 151% of baseline calories

All Fast Days: 448 kcal or 24% of baseline calories

For reference

Week 1: 3 feast days, 4 fast days

Week 2: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 3: 4 feast days, 1 medium day, 1 fast day (I re-categorized my "faux-fast" as a medium day)

Week 4: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 5: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 6: 3 feast days, 4 fast days

Week 7: 4 feast days, 3 fast days, 

Week 8: 3 feast days, 4 fast days

Week 9: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 10: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 11: 4 feast days, 3 fast days

Week 12: 5 feast days, 2 fast days*

Week 13: 5 feast days, 2 fast days*

*Includes days during my bachelorette party weekend.

As you can see, my 13th week was a record-breaker in calorie consumption. I also broke records in average carbohydrate consumption (224 grams/day) and sugar consumption (85 grams/day). It's no wonder I feel so gross in the aftermath of all this. My insides are probably coated in molasses and all of the good bacteria that were once living happily in my body are now dead. 

I have been partying in a land of carbs.

Check out the cool food landscapes by Carl Warner.

I will attempt to fast again tomorrow and just eat something light in the morning while avoiding my normal morning coffee (which can upset my stomach). Hopefully I don't end up going overboard when the need for my second meal kicks in. Eating two tiny meals is far more difficult for me than eating one filling meal. Getting back on the wagon is tough!

Fast(ing) Food - Spicy Lemon Butter Pasta

Day 73, Fast Day #35

Turns out I lost another pound, so I have surpassed the 20 lb milestone and am down 21 lbs  (9.5 kg) since I started alternate day fasting back in April. I also busted out the measuring tape and I have shed two inches from my waist and a bit over one inch from my hips. My slimmer self is now fitting into clothes that had magically "shrunk a lot in the dryer" over the years.

My copy of Wheat Belly should be arriving in the mail tomorrow. I would like to stop eating wheat products in the near future as an additional experiment, but that day is not today. Plus, I just looked at the list of food and alcohol supplies for my hen weekend at the end of the month, and there are some really tasty wheat products (vodka, croissants  muffins, more vodka, beer, more vodka). It will be an epic weekend at the shore with my girls with some epic feasts. 

While I had carbs on the mind, I worked on using up the last box of pasta in the house and threw together a savory and spicy pasta dish. 

Spicy Lemon Butter Pasta (Yields 3 servings) ~325 kcal/serving

Takes 10-15 minutes

I really enjoy pungent, strong flavored foods like mustard, garlic, olives, vinegar, and pickled vegetables. So, if you are not as fond of these sorts of strong flavors, I would recommend cutting the olives and garlic, then perhaps adding more lemon. Capers would be good instead of olives, but I unfortunately had none on hand tonight.

• 4 oz pasta (I used whole grain medium shells) ~400 kcal
• 2 tbsp olive oil ~250 kcal
• 1 tbsp unsalted butter ~102 kcal
• 1/4 large onion (I used a yellow onion) ~15 kcal
• 1 clove garlic, sliced thinly - optional ~4 kcal
• 8 kalamata olives, sliced - optional ~50 kcal
• 8 grape tomatoes, halved ~16 kcal
• 8 pieces of marinated artichoke heart (quarter pieces), chopped (I used Costco's) ~108 kcal
• 1/4 cup sliced banana pepper or peperoncinis (I used Mezzetta's mild pepper rings) ~10 kcal
• 2 cups arugula, chopped ~10 kcal
• 2 tsp lemon juice ~2 kcal
• 2 tsp balsamic vinegar ~7 kcal
• pepper, to taste ~1 kcal
• Italian seasoning, 2-3 dashes (or mix of marjoram, thyme, oregano, and basil)
• red pepper flakes, to taste - optional for even more spiciness

Fill a large pot 2/3 full of water and heat to a boil. While the water is heating up, prep the veggies and garlic. Once the water is boiling, add pasta to cook for 6 minutes (slightly underdone, because they are going in a skillet later) with a little salt so they don't stick.

In a large skillet, heat the butter and olive oil on medium heat. Once hot, add in the onions.

Heat onions until they start to become translucent. Stir occasionally. Add in garlic.

After about a minute, add in the olives, artichoke hearts, and peppers. 

After a minute or so, add the lemon juice and balsamic vinegar.

Once the pasta has cooked 6 minutes, drain and toss the pasta into the skillet. Add arugula. once the arugula is wilting, season with pepper, Italian seasoning, and red pepper flakes . Eat!

Week 10 Summary

Day 72, Fast Day #34

My mother left Seattle yesterday and I ended up making her 3-day stay a 3-day feast for myself. I did stick to a 16/8 fast on Thursday, but that was really my only restriction. Within those three feast days, there was seafood, buttery movie theater popcorn, corn pudding, a cheeseburger, fried brie, and lots of wine. This weekend reminded me that lactose is not my friend, ugh. After all of the dairy and other food debauchery, I am glad it is a fast day.

I somehow managed not to gain any weight and even lost a pound over the weekend, which puts me at a total of 20 lbs lost in 10 weeks. That is right at 2 lbs (0.9 kg)of weight loss per week, which is what is generally expected while alternate day fasting. My weight loss seems to defy traditional logic since I was having extra feasts. But, I managed to not go completely carb crazy this week. I ingested and average of 150 grams of carbohydrates/day this week, while my baseline was 213 grams/day. Perhaps my continued transitioning to a lower carb diet has something to do with it, but I am not sure. 

I did eat 14% less calories than my baseline this week, despite the extra feasting, which is 1,813 less calories this week than prior to starting alternate day fasting. This is not the theoretic 3,500 calories/week reduction needed to lose a pound, mind you. Although, the 3,500 calorie "rule" is probably not a very good rule of thumb anyway because the energy deficit requirement to lose weight is probably dependent on body composition  I reduced my caloric intake by a total of 13,468 calories over the last 10 weeks, which by the 3,500 calorie rule would mean I would have only lost a bit less than 4 lbs overall, not the 20 lbs I have lost. How mysterious. 

Calories
Week 1: 1,437 kcal or 76% of baseline calories (-3,213 kcal/week)
Week 2: 1,938 kcal or 102% of baseline calories (+294 kcal/week)
Week 3: 1,680 kcal or 89% of baseline calories (-1,512 kcal/week)
Week 4: 2,196 kcal or 116% of baseline calories (+2,100 kcal/week)
Week 5: 1,829 kcal or 96% of baseline calories (-469 kcal/week)
Week 6: 1,531 kcal or 81% of baseline calories (-2,555 kcal/week)
Week 7: 1,954 kcal or 103% of baseline calories (+406 kcal/week)
Week 8: 1,196 kcal or 63% of baseline calories (-4,900 kcal/week)
Week 9: 1,638 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,806 kcal/week)
Week 10: 1,637 kcal or 86% of baseline calories (-1,813 kcal/week)

While ADFing: 1,704 kcal or 90% of baseline calories
Baseline Days: 1,896 kcal

All Feast Days: 2,802 kcal or 148% of baseline calories
All Fast Days*: 472 kcal or 25% of baseline calories

For reference
Week 1: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 2: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 3: 4 feast days, 3 fast days*
Week 4: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 5: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 6: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 7: 4 feast days, 3 fast days, 
Week 8: 3 feast days, 4 fast days
Week 9: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
Week 10: 4 feast days, 3 fast days
*Includes faux-fast day that was my mama's birthday dinner.

I watched a few health and weight loss talks and documentaries this week. I think the one that was most intriguing to me was Wheat: The UNhealthy Whole Grain by Dr. William Davis, the author of Wheat Belly. I haven't looked into the papers and whatnot that Dr. Davis cites, but I know I do not feel great after I eat refined grains. I also have looked at the research papers showing the high glycemic response in those foods, so I figured they aren't healthy anyway. Zach just ordered me Wheat Belly on Amazon, so I am interested to read what he has to say on why we shouldn't be eating wheat. I would like to experiment at some point with cutting wheat from my diet entirely and seeing how I feel. 

I didn't eat any wheat products on today's fast day. I made some Paleo egg and ham cups instead. Yum. I rarely eat wheat on fast days anyway because of the calorie-load plus I never feel full from breads and what not.

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Week 5 Summary

Day 37, Feast Day #20

Getting calories down on feast days has proved difficult with trips to bars, breweries, and birthday parties with friends. Here are the numbers:

Calories
Week 1: 1,437 kcal or 76% of baseline calories
Week 2: 1,938 kcal or 102% of baseline calories
Week 3: 1,680 kcal or 89% of baseline calories
Week 4: 2,196 kcal or 116% of baseline calories
Week 5: 1,829 kcal or 96% of baseline calories

While ADFing: 1,776 kcal or 94%of baseline calories
Baseline Days: 1,896 kcal

All Feast Days: 2,942 kcal or 155% of baseline calories
All Fast Days*: 473 kcal or 25% of baseline calories

For reference
Week 1: 4 fast days, 3 feast days
Week 2: 3 fast days, 4 feast days
Week 3: 3 fast days*, 4 feast days
Week 4: 3 fast days, 4 feast days
Week 5: 3 fast days, 4 feast days
*Includes faux-fast day that was my mama's birthday dinner.

Obviously, our feast days are still too feasty. As usual, this is due to overindulging when eating out, particularly when it comes to a calorie-packed cocktail or beer. I also discovered this weekend while at a friend's 30th birthday bash that not only is mead (honey wine) incredibly delicious, but it is over 220 calories for a 5 oz. glass. It is a good thing I don't have easy access to mead regularly. Luckily his week's social calendar is looking less hedonistic, so hopefully I can make some progress on the following goals:

• Reduce the sugar I am eating. I was eating 57 grams/day this week. This is below both my original sugar consumption and below the 5-week average of 63 grams. I still would like to cut this down even further since I have a family history of diabetes.

• Reduce overall carbohydrates eaten. My carb gluttony has me at 196 grams of carbs/day this past week. This is still below what I have been averaging, but again the USDA DRV is 130 grams. That is over a 50% reduction I am aiming for, so this could be tough.

• Eat more potassium-rich foods. I am still struggling to get even close to the DRV of potassium. Last week I only ate about 1807 mg/day on average, which is lower than the previous 5 weeks. The daily recommendation is 4700 mg/day, to put things in perspective. We bought some mushrooms this week and are still working on using up a bunch of tomatoes. More of our meals need to revolve around potassium. I think eating more legumes might tackle the potassium deficit plus providing iron, which I have also been running low on (55% of DRV).

Week 4 Summary

Day 30, Fast Day #14

Fasting today felt great after putting my body (especially my liver) through a bit of hard labor this weekend. I found I was not very hungry today and craving mostly fresh, raw produce after  eating a bunch of grilled meats, pastries, and fried foods over the last couple of days. I had a ton of energy today, got a lot of sleep, and was enjoying the great and unusual summer-like weather we have been having in Seattle.

Zach and I added in an additional feast day this past week because friends visited us from out of town and there was lots of celebrating with friends to be had. I weighed myself again this morning and I am still holding steady at 13 lbs lost in total despite two consecutive days of going out, day drinking, night drinking, and eating lots of rich foods.

Calories
Week 1: 1,437 kcal or 76% of baseline calories
Week 2: 1,938 kcal or 102% of baseline calories
Week 3: 1,680 kcal or 89% of baseline calories
Week 4: 2,196 kcal or 116% of baseline calories
,
While ADFing: 1,856 kcal or 98% of baseline
Baseline Days: 1,896 kcal

All Feast Days: 2,952 kcal or 156% of baseline
All Fast Days*: 498 kcal or 26% of baseline

For reference
Week 1: 4 fast days, 3 feast days
Week 2: 3 fast days, 4 feast days
Week 3: 3 fast days*, 4 feast days
Week 4: 3 fast days, 4 feast days
*Includes faux-fast day that was my mama's birthday dinner.

It was the most calorie-heavy week since starting alternate day fasting. I ate well over the calories during my baseline days. How did I manage to consume so many more calories than the previous few weeks? One word: Alcohol. Between Friday and Saturday, the consecutive feast days, I consumed about 39% of my calories within just 29% of the week. On Friday, 41% of my entire day's calories where in alcoholic beverages and on Saturday, 33% of my day's calories were in alcoholic beverages. Don't worry, this is NOT my typical drinking behavior and the booze was not all consumed within the same window of time.

What I find most interesting about looking at my numbers from the last month is that my total calorie consumption, as of now, is not significantly less than my baseline calorie consumption. However, I still am down the 13 lbs of weight. 

It is possible the baseline calorie consumption I am using for myself is lower than the number of calories I actually ate on average in the past, since I only tracked two days worth of eating prior to Zach declaring the third day a fast day. (Again, this is not a scientific experiment I am doing, this is just me trying to figure out how intermittent fasting effects my body). My level of physical activity has not changed, so I doubt that is a factor. If my average calorie intake was much higher than my baseline, it is possible my calories are more reduced than I know and this is why I have not regained the weight this week.

The only noticeable nutritional difference that I know of between my eating now and 4 weeks ago, is that my sugar consumption (but not total carbohydrates) is 42% lower. I am not eating much less in overall calories or carbs, so I don't think the lower amount of sugar is a factor in preventing my overeating. However, there is research that suggests that blood sugar levels and glycemic response are related to fat storage. One theory could be that I am not storing fat in the same way because of the large reduction of in sugar in my diet. I have also been eating foods lower on the glycemic index since starting ADF, and therefore explains how I am eating carbs, but not as many of the simple sugar ones. I figured all of those Marie Osmond infommericals selling Nutrisystem was all gimmick, but perhaps there is science behind eating lower on the glycemic index to lose weight.

My only other theory is that the pattern in which I am eating on it's own is changing how I metabolize food. That I will explore this theory on another night, since it is past my bedtime.

Water Weight: A Dieter's Foe

Day 13, Fast Day #7

I stepped on the scale yesterday and saw another 2 lbs lost for a total loss of 9 lbs in less than two weeks.

Frankly, I would be a fool to think that while on this diet that I am just dripping pure fat off my body like a meatloaf in a hot oven. So how much of the weight I am losing is just water weight?

Based on my current diet so far, here has been what I am eating on average feast and fast days as a reference:

Carbs: 333 grams (feast), 64 grams (fast), 130 grams (USDA DRV) - I clearly love bread

Fat: 86 grams (feast),7 grams (fast), undetermined USDA DRV

Protein: 91 grams (feast), 31 grams (fast), 46 grams (USDA DRV)

Well, complex carbohydrates bond well with water. So it makes sense on my down days where I am fasting, that the water in my body has less to bond to by way of carbs, and therefore I lose the water. I have clearly had plenty of carbohydrates to bond to on feast days and prior to dieting.

My sodium intake on an average fast day is 2,272 mg while my feast day is a very naughty 4,367 mg. The USDA recommends no more than 2,300 mg a day for my age and sex, so I should work on that. We know sodium retains water in the body. So, it makes sense that when I am consuming less sodium on my fast days, I must also have the ability to drop more water weight.

A study by M. Yang was sort of useful in answering my question. (Mind you, his study is with obese men and the low-carb ketogenic diet he uses is more like the Atkins diet, so not perfect for me.) In his study participants on a ketogenic diet, of the weight loss subjects experienced (by weight): 60-69% water weight loss and 15-36% fat loss (depending on which study you look at). My point is, the rapid initial weight loss seems to be mostly water.

Luckily it looks like the lower carb diets in a longer period do end up "accelerating" fat loss and maintaining muscle mass after the initial water weight loss, as noted in this summary of papers on the topic. So hopefully I level off on the number of pounds soon and start burning off more fat.